Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Elly De La CruzBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Nick MartinezPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Cubs- Michael BuschBatting2-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jameson TaillonPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Stephenson hit sacrifice fly to right, De La Cruz scored.3–7
- 7Hoerner singled to right, Crow-Armstrong scored and Suzuki scored, Busch to third.2–7
- 6De La Cruz homered to right (423 feet), Espinal scored.2–5
- 5Busch singled to right, Crow-Armstrong scored.0–5
- 3Busch homered to right center (413 feet), Swanson scored.0–4
- 3Swanson doubled to left, Crow-Armstrong scored.0–2
- 3Crow-Armstrong singled to right, Tucker scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 60%
- ML CIN +140 / CHC -165
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- CHC: Elo 58.6%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- CHC -149
- CIN +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.3 – 4.2 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +7 | CIN: Nick Martinez: team allows 0.51 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Jameson Taillon: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +60 Elo | CHC 58.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 60.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 59.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 5.82nd of 30 |
| 12th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.214th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +1.62nd of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 10th of 3015–16 | Road vs home | 19–96th of 30 |
| 26th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 149722nd of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Elo rating | 15443rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–26 | 29–29 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–17 | 20–18 |
| Underdog | 22–9 | 9–11 |
| Overs–unders | 23–36 | 35–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 17–14 CHC in their last 31 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 31.