Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Michael BuschBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Cade HortonPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Nationals- Luis Garcia Jr.Batting3-4, 1 RBI
- Trevor WilliamsPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Busch homered to right center (410 feet).8–3
- 5Hoerner singled to right, Crow-Armstrong scored and Kelly scored, Busch to third.7–3
- 5Busch walked, Happ scored, Kelly to second, Crow-Armstrong to third.5–3
- 5Suzuki hit sacrifice fly to center, Shaw scored, Happ to second.4–3
- 4Swanson hit sacrifice fly to right, Kelly scored.3–3
- 4Busch singled to right, Crow-Armstrong scored, Kelly to third.2–3
- 3Wood hit sacrifice fly to left, Lile scored.1–3
- 3Abrams grounded out to second, Tena scored, Lile to third.1–2
- 2Swanson hit sacrifice fly to center, Busch scored.1–1
- 1García Jr. singled to left, Abrams scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 57%
- ML CHC -145 / WSH +120
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.0 pts
- CHC: Elo 58.5%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- CHC -130
- WSH +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 5.0 – 4.5 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +6 | CHC: Cade Horton: team allows 0.55 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · WSH: Trevor Williams: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +60 Elo | CHC 58.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 59.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 59.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.8 | Runs scored | 4.512th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.125th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.6 | Margin | −0.623rd of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 1st of 3017–11 | Road vs home | 13–1422nd of 30 |
| 24th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15029th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301546 | Elo rating | 147424th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 30–29 | 33–26 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 21–18 | 0–9 |
| Underdog | 9–11 | 33–17 |
| Overs–unders | 36–23 | 29–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 9–5 WSH in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 14.