Cincinnati Reds at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Elly De La CruzBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nick LodoloPitching3.1 IP, 6 ER, 6 K
Guardians- Lane ThomasBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Logan AllenPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6Thomas homered to right (330 feet), Nuñez scored and Martínez scored.2–11
- 6Martínez reached on infield single to pitcher, Rodríguez scored, Nuñez to second.2–8
- 6Friedl homered to center (396 feet).2–7
- 4Manzardo doubled to right, Martínez scored and Nuñez scored.1–7
- 4De La Cruz homered to left center (441 feet).1–5
- 3Santana homered to right center (397 feet), Martínez scored, Thomas scored and Ramírez scored.0–5
- 1Ramírez doubled to left, Fry scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 53%
- ML CIN -125 / CLE +105
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.7 pts
- CIN: Elo 47.5%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- CIN -114
- CLE +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.4 – 4.1 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −7 | CIN: Nick Lodolo: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Logan Allen: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +17 Elo | CLE 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 3.824th of 30 |
| 10th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.216th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −0.322nd of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 8th of 3017–17 | Road vs home | 18–1517th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15048th of 30 |
| 16th of 301505 | Elo rating | 150417th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–30 | 30–36 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 14–20 | 10–18 |
| Underdog | 24–10 | 20–18 |
| Overs–unders | 27–41 | 30–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 8–5 CLE in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 13.