Arizona Diamondbacks at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Eugenio SuarezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching6.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Reds- Matt McLainBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7McLain homered to left (381 feet), Fraley scored.2–4
- 5Trevino homered to left center (389 feet).2–2
- 4Encarnacion-Strand homered to left center (403 feet).2–1
- 3Carroll singled to center, Thomas scored.2–0
- 2Suárez homered to center (395 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 51%
- ML ARI -115 / CIN -105
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.7 pts
- ARI: Elo 49.3%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- ARI -104
- CIN +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.8 – 4.7 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −9 | ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Brady Singer: team allows 0.45 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +5 Elo | CIN 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.68th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 4.013th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.68th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 7th of 3016–16 | Road vs home | 17–1619th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301512 | Opponent Elo | 149622nd of 30 |
| 13th of 301514 | Elo rating | 150019th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–31 | 35–30 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 16–21 | 13–20 |
| Underdog | 17–10 | 22–10 |
| Overs–unders | 32–32 | 26–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 8–7 CIN in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 15.