Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Sal FrelickBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Reds- Tyler StephensonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Hunter GreenePitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Benson homered to left center (374 feet).2–4
- 7Joe hit sacrifice fly to right, Fraley scored.2–3
- 4Stephenson homered to right (359 feet), De La Cruz scored.2–2
- 4Frelick homered to right (357 feet).2–0
- 1Yelich singled to left, Turang scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 55%
- ML MIL +115 / CIN -135
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.0 pts
- CIN: Elo 47.2%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- CIN -124
- MIL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.0 – 4.5 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +3 | MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Hunter Greene: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +19 Elo | MIL 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.511th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.012th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.510th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 16th of 3015–18 | Road vs home | 14–1521st of 30 |
| 19th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149426th of 30 |
| 7th of 301531 | Elo rating | 149619th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–28 | 33–28 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 16–15 | 11–18 |
| Underdog | 17–13 | 22–10 |
| Overs–unders | 24–37 | 24–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 23–8 CIN in their last 31 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 31.