Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Christian YelichBatting3-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Quinn PriesterPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 0 K
Phillies- Nick CastellanosBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Taijuan WalkerPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Yelich homered to right (420 feet).6–2
- 7Castellanos homered to left (373 feet).5–2
- 5Yelich homered to left (358 feet), Turang scored and Chourio scored.5–1
- 4Schwarber doubled to center, Turner scored.2–1
- 1Frelick singled to center, Chourio scored.2–0
- 1Contreras grounded out to catcher, Turang scored, Chourio to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 52%
- ML MIL +100 / PHI -120
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- PHI: Elo 53.9%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- PHI -109
- MIL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.7 – 4.8 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | −22 | MIL: DL Hall: team allows 0.61 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · PHI: Taijuan Walker: team allows 1.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +27 Elo | PHI 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.86th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.114th of 30 |
| 17th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.77th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 3011–18 | Road vs home | 19–96th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 149129th of 30 |
| 10th of 301521 | Elo rating | 15404th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 29–28 | 28–28 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 16–15 | 22–23 |
| Underdog | 13–13 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders | 23–34 | 25–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 6–6 PHI in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 12.