Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Christian YelichBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Aaron CivalePitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Reds- TJ FriedlBatting2-3
- Brady SingerPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 3Yelich homered to center (418 feet).3–2
- 2Turang sacrificed into double play, left to third to second, Monasterio scored, Bauers thrown out at third.2–2
- 2Ortiz walked, Frelick scored, Bauers to second, Monasterio to third.1–2
- 1Steer reached on bunt single to catcher, De La Cruz scored. Stephenson to third, Steer to second on throwing error by catcher Contreras.0–2
- 1De La Cruz singled to center, Friedl scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 51%
- ML MIL -105 / CIN -115
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- CIN: Elo 47.1%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- CIN -104
- MIL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.2 – 4.3 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −11 | MIL: Aaron Civale: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Brady Singer: team allows 0.57 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +20 Elo | MIL 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.510th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.012th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.510th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 16th of 3014–18 | Road vs home | 14–1420th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149426th of 30 |
| 7th of 301530 | Elo rating | 149719th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 32–28 | 33–27 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 16–15 | 11–17 |
| Underdog | 16–13 | 22–10 |
| Overs–unders | 24–36 | 24–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 22–8 CIN in their last 30 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 30.