Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Jackson ChourioBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Jose QuintanaPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Ranger SuarezPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Turang singled to right, Ortiz scored.5–2
- 7Bauers doubled to right, Contreras scored and Chourio scored.4–2
- 7Durbin scored on error, Contreras safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Turner, Chourio to second.2–2
- 5Chourio grounded into fielder's choice to third, Ortiz scored, Turang out at second.1–2
- 2Schwarber reached on infield single to shortstop, Stott scored, Rojas to second.0–2
- 1Realmuto singled to center, Turner scored, Castellanos to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 60%
- ML MIL +140 / PHI -165
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.0 pts
- PHI: Elo 52.9%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- PHI -149
- MIL +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 3.8 – 4.7 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +3 | MIL: Jose Quintana: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +20 Elo | PHI 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 58.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 57.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.86th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.420th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.411th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 19th of 3013–18 | Road vs home | 19–1112th of 30 |
| 24th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149229th of 30 |
| 7th of 301527 | Elo rating | 15346th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–28 | 28–30 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 16–15 | 22–25 |
| Underdog | 15–13 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders | 24–35 | 26–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 8–6 PHI in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 14.