Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Rhys HoskinsBatting2-6, 2 HR, 6 RBI
- Chad PatrickPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Phillies- Alec BohmBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jesus LuzardoPitching3.1 IP, 12 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Marsh homered to center (404 feet), Kepler scored.17–7
- 9Kepler reached on infield single to first, Rojas scored.17–5
- 9Rojas tripled to right, Schwarber scored and Bohm scored.17–4
- 6Schwarber doubled to right, Stott scored.17–2
- 6Chourio homered to left center (375 feet), Ortiz scored and Turang scored.17–1
- 6Turang singled to left, Durbin scored, Ortiz to third.14–1
- 6Ortiz singled to center, Cameron scored, Durbin to second.13–1
- 4Bohm homered to right center (371 feet).12–1
- 4Frelick singled to right, Cameron scored.12–0
- 4Hoskins homered to left (382 feet), Chourio scored and Contreras scored.11–0
- 4Contreras singled to left, Turang scored, Chourio to third.8–0
- 4Chourio singled to center, Durbin scored and Ortiz scored, Turang to third.7–0
- 4Durbin reached on bunt single to pitcher, Frelick scored on throwing error by pitcher Luzardo.5–0
- 1Hoskins homered to center (408 feet), Contreras scored and Yelich scored.4–0
- 1Yelich singled to center, Chourio scored, Contreras to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 62%
- ML MIL +155 / PHI -185
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.8 pts
- PHI: Elo 54.5%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -166
- MIL +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 3.2 – 4.3 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +1 | MIL: Chad Patrick: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · PHI: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +31 Elo | PHI 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 61.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 60.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.86th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.215th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.67th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3012–18 | Road vs home | 19–1010th of 30 |
| 24th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149030th of 30 |
| 10th of 301523 | Elo rating | 15386th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 30–28 | 28–29 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 16–15 | 22–24 |
| Underdog | 14–13 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders | 23–35 | 25–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 7–6 PHI in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 13.