Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Jackson ChourioBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Quinn PriesterPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Reds- Jose TrevinoBatting3-4
- Andrew AbbottPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Collins homered to left (367 feet), Chourio scored and Yelich scored.9–1
- 8Haase singled to center, Cameron scored, Ortiz to second, Frelick to third.6–1
- 6Cameron homered to center (437 feet), Hoskins scored.5–1
- 5McLain grounded out to shortstop, Trevino scored.3–1
- 5Chourio homered to right (389 feet), Turang scored.3–0
- 3Monasterio singled to left, Turang scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 54%
- ML MIL +110 / CIN -130
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- CIN: Elo 50.7%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- CIN -119
- MIL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.1 – 4.4 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +11 | MIL: DL Hall: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 0.53 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +5 Elo | CIN 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.59th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.012th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.59th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 17th of 3015–19 | Road vs home | 15–1519th of 30 |
| 19th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149425th of 30 |
| 7th of 301529 | Elo rating | 149819th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–29 | 34–28 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 16–15 | 12–18 |
| Underdog | 17–14 | 22–10 |
| Overs–unders | 24–38 | 24–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 23–9 CIN in their last 32 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 32.