Arizona Diamondbacks at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Eugenio SuarezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ryne NelsonPitching3.0 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
Reds- Gavin LuxBatting1-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Nick MartinezPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 4McLain grounded out to second, Stephenson scored, Fraley to second, Steer to third.1–13
- 4Steer singled to left, Benson scored, Stephenson to second.1–12
- 4Stephenson singled to center, De La Cruz scored, Benson to second.1–11
- 4Lux homered to right (351 feet), Fraley scored, McLain scored and Friedl scored.1–10
- 4Friedl hit by pitch, Steer scored, McLain to second, Fraley to third.1–6
- 2Suárez homered to left (369 feet).1–5
- 1Fraley grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Stephenson scored, Steer out at second.0–5
- 1Steer singled to left, Benson scored, Stephenson to third.0–4
- 1Encarnacion-Strand homered to left (369 feet), Friedl scored and De La Cruz scored.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 50%
- ML ARI -110 / CIN -110
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.7 pts
- CIN: Elo 48.3%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- CIN -100
- ARI -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.8 – 4.8 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | +5 | ARI: Ryne Nelson: team allows 0.63 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Nick Martinez: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +12 Elo | ARI 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.410th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.113th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.410th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 7th of 3016–15 | Road vs home | 16–1620th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301512 | Opponent Elo | 149623rd of 30 |
| 12th of 301518 | Elo rating | 149620th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–30 | 34–30 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 16–21 | 12–20 |
| Underdog | 17–9 | 22–10 |
| Overs–unders | 31–32 | 25–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 8–6 CIN in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 14.