Houston Astros at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Jake MeyersBatting4-4
- Brandon WalterPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Guardians- Bo NaylorBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Kwan hit sacrifice fly to center, Naylor scored.2–4
- 7Wilson hit sacrifice bunt, Jones scored, Wilson to first on throwing error by pitcher Okert, Wilson to second, Naylor to third.2–3
- 7Smith doubled to left, Diaz scored and Meyers scored.2–2
- 2Naylor homered to right center (429 feet), Arias scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 57%
- ML HOU +120 / CLE -145
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- CLE: Elo 50.6%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- CLE -130
- HOU +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 3.5 – 4.0 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +7 | HOU: Brandon Walter: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +4 Elo | CLE 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 55.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.0 | Runs scored | 3.924th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.218th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.322nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 15th of 3014–16 | Road vs home | 17–1316th of 30 |
| 10th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15037th of 30 |
| 7th of 301529 | Elo rating | 150617th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 34–30 | 29–34 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 19–24 | 9–16 |
| Underdog | 15–6 | 20–18 |
| Overs–unders | 26–38 | 29–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 10–3 CLE in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 13.