Cleveland Guardians at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting2-4
- Tanner BibeePitching6.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Yankees- Jazz Chisholm Jr.Batting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Carlos RodonPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Schneemann singled to right, Santana scored.2–3
- 7Volpe homered to left (372 feet).1–3
- 7Chisholm Jr. homered to right center (358 feet).1–2
- 7Fry singled to right, Ramírez scored.1–1
- 5LeMahieu singled to right, Chisholm Jr. scored, Escarra to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 65%
- ML CLE +175 / NYY -210
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.8 pts
- NYY: Elo 59.3%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- NYY -186
- CLE +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.1 – 4.4 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1557 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +5 | CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +65 Elo | NYY 59.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 62.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 61.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.53rd of 30 |
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.89th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.3 | Margin | +1.72nd of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 7th of 3015–15 | Road vs home | 18–97th of 30 |
| 14th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149913th of 30 |
| 17th of 301509 | Elo rating | 15572nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 27–31 | 29–29 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 9–15 | 24–26 |
| Underdog | 18–16 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 28–30 | 26–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 7–13 NYY in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 20.
- Apr 23NYY 5 @ CLE 1Picked NYY 60%Hit
- Apr 22NYY 2 @ CLE 3Picked CLE 51%Hit
- Apr 21NYY 4 @ CLE 6Picked NYY 52%Miss
- Oct 19NYY 5 @ CLE 2PlayoffsPicked NYY 55%Hit
- Oct 18NYY 8 @ CLE 6PlayoffsPicked NYY 52%Hit
- Oct 17NYY 5 @ CLE 7PlayoffsPicked CLE 50%Hit
- Oct 15CLE 3 @ NYY 6PlayoffsPicked NYY 61%Hit
- Oct 14CLE 2 @ NYY 5PlayoffsPicked NYY 61%Hit