Los Angeles Angels at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Yoan MoncadaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle HendricksPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Guardians- Steven KwanBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Slade CecconiPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Arias doubled to center, Naylor scored and Schneemann scored.5–7
- 7Santana homered to right (348 feet).5–5
- 6Kwan homered to right (360 feet).5–4
- 5Ramírez homered to right (357 feet).5–3
- 5Trout doubled to left, Moncada scored, Ward to third.5–2
- 4Jones tripled to center, Jones scored on throwing error by shortstop Neto and Arias scored.4–2
- 4Adell homered to right center (410 feet), Trout scored.4–0
- 3Ward homered to center (397 feet).2–0
- 3Moncada homered to right (345 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 61%
- ML LAA +145 / CLE -175
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.2 pts
- CLE: Elo 59.7%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- CLE -156
- LAA +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.3 – 4.2 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1448 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −3 | LAA: Kyle Hendricks: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Slade Cecconi: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +68 Elo | CLE 59.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 62.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 62.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.024th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.419th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −0.422nd of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 7th of 3016–15 | Road vs home | 15–1117th of 30 |
| 14th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150210th of 30 |
| 27th of 301448 | Elo rating | 150717th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 26–30 | 25–31 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–11 | 7–15 |
| Underdog | 23–19 | 18–16 |
| Overs–unders | 30–26 | 27–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 8–9 CLE in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 17.