Los Angeles Angels at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Jorge SolerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jose SorianoPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Guardians- Nolan JonesBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Luis OrtizPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Jones singled to right, Santana scored, Naylor to third.4–1
- 9Soler homered to left (393 feet).4–0
- 7Soler singled to center, Schanuel scored, Ward to second.3–0
- 7Kingery scored.2–0
- 7Kingery scored.2–0
- 2Adell singled to right, Soler scored, O'Hoppe to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 57%
- ML LAA +120 / CLE -145
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.8 pts
- CLE: Elo 61.4%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- CLE -130
- LAA +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.0 – 4.5 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1446 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −1 | LAA: Jose Soriano: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Luis Ortiz: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +80 Elo | CLE 61.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 55.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.123rd of 30 |
| 26th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.421st of 30 |
| 25th of 30−1.0 | Margin | −0.322nd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 7th of 3015–15 | Road vs home | 15–1015th of 30 |
| 14th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150210th of 30 |
| 27th of 301446 | Elo rating | 150916th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–30 | 25–30 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–11 | 7–14 |
| Underdog | 22–19 | 18–16 |
| Overs–unders | 30–25 | 27–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 7–9 CLE in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 16.