Los Angeles Angels at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Luis RengifoBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Jack KochanowiczPitching3.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Gavin WilliamsPitching6.2 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Trout singled to center, Adell scored, Rengifo to second.2–4
- 7Rengifo singled to right, O'Hoppe scored, Adell to third.1–4
- 4Jones singled to center, Manzardo scored and Naylor scored, Arias to third.0–4
- 4Ramírez homered to right center (397 feet).0–2
- 3Kwan hit sacrifice fly to right, Arias scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 63%
- ML LAA +160 / CLE -190
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- CLE: Elo 60.7%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- CLE -170
- LAA +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.7 – 4.8 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1447 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −5 | LAA: Jack Kochanowicz: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CLE: Gavin Williams: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +75 Elo | CLE 60.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 60.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 60.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.419th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−1.0 | Margin | −0.322nd of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 7th of 3016–16 | Road vs home | 16–1117th of 30 |
| 13th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150111th of 30 |
| 27th of 301447 | Elo rating | 150817th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 26–31 | 26–31 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–11 | 8–15 |
| Underdog | 23–20 | 18–16 |
| Overs–unders | 31–26 | 28–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 8–10 CLE in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 18.