Houston Astros at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Brendan RodgersBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Colton GordonPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Guardians- David FryBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Logan AllenPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 6Fry homered to right (361 feet).4–2
- 6Rodgers homered to center (396 feet).4–1
- 5Wilson singled to left, Schneemann scored, Jones to second.3–1
- 5Walker singled to right, Paredes scored and Altuve scored.3–0
- 5Altuve reached on infield single to third, Peña scored, Paredes to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 55%
- ML HOU -135 / CLE +115
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.7 pts
- HOU: Elo 47.5%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- HOU -124
- CLE +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.0 – 3.5 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −24 | −8 | HOU: Colton Gordon: team allows 1.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · CLE: Logan Allen: team allows 0.41 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +17 Elo | CLE 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.024th of 30 |
| 8th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.216th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.322nd of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 21st of 3012–16 | Road vs home | 17–1114th of 30 |
| 14th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15039th of 30 |
| 9th of 301526 | Elo rating | 150916th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 32–30 | 29–32 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 18–24 | 9–15 |
| Underdog | 14–6 | 20–17 |
| Overs–unders | 25–37 | 28–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 8–3 CLE in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.