Houston Astros at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Isaac ParedesBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Lance McCullers Jr.Pitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Pirates- Isiah Kiner-FalefaBatting2-3
- Paul SkenesPitching8.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Paredes homered to left (403 feet), Peña scored.3–0
- 7Walker homered to left (394 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 60%
- ML HOU +140 / PIT -165
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.4 pts
- PIT: Elo 47.5%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- PIT -149
- HOU +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 3.3 – 4.2 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1461 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | +15 | HOU: Lance McCullers Jr.: team allows 0.60 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · PIT: Paul Skenes: team allows 0.75 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +18 Elo | HOU 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 55.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 3.228th of 30 |
| 8th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.215th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −1.025th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3010–15 | Road vs home | 13–1624th of 30 |
| 10th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15132nd of 30 |
| 10th of 301524 | Elo rating | 146125th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 30–29 | 26–34 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 17–23 | 3–14 |
| Underdog | 13–6 | 23–20 |
| Overs–unders | 24–35 | 24–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 3–3 PIT in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.