Tampa Bay Rays at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Jose CaballeroBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ryan PepiotPitching6.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Astros- Yainer DiazBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching9.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Diaz homered to right (370 feet).1–2
- 8Dezenzo reached on infield single to second, Meyers scored on throwing error by second baseman Mead.1–1
- 1Caballero homered to left (383 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 58%
- ML TB +130 / HOU -155
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- HOU: Elo 55.7%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- HOU -140
- TB +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.4 – 4.1 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +15 | TB: Ryan Pepiot: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.76 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +40 Elo | HOU 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 54.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.219th of 30 |
| 9th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 3.78th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.512th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 4th of 3011–8 | Road vs home | 20–1111th of 30 |
| 8th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 150110th of 30 |
| 15th of 301512 | Elo rating | 15278th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 28–28 | 30–26 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 12–19 | 17–20 |
| Underdog | 16–9 | 13–6 |
| Overs–unders | 22–34 | 23–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 8–8 HOU in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 16.