Tampa Bay Rays at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Junior CamineroBatting3-6, 1 HR, 6 RBI
- Shane BazPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Astros- Yainer DiazBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ryan GustoPitching3.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Caballero doubled to shortstop, Misner scored.13–3
- 8Misner doubled to right, Aranda scored and Caminero scored.12–3
- 8Caminero doubled to left, J. Lowe scored and B. Lowe scored, Aranda to third.10–3
- 7Caminero homered to right center (385 feet), Díaz scored and Aranda scored.8–3
- 7Aranda doubled to right, B. Lowe scored, Díaz to third.5–3
- 7Díaz singled to right, J. Lowe scored, B. Lowe to third.4–3
- 6Altuve homered to left center (399 feet).3–3
- 5Dubón singled to left, Smith scored.3–2
- 5Diaz homered to center (430 feet).3–1
- 5Caminero singled to left, Aranda scored, Caminero to second.3–0
- 4Misner struck out swinging, Simpson scored on throwing error by catcher Diaz.2–0
- 1Díaz hit sacrifice fly to right, J. Lowe scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 52%
- ML TB +100 / HOU -120
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.1 pts
- HOU: Elo 55.3%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- HOU -109
- TB +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.2 – 4.3 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −5 | TB: Shane Baz: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · HOU: Ryan Gusto: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +37 Elo | HOU 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.217th of 30 |
| 9th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 3.56th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.79th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 6th of 3010–8 | Road vs home | 20–108th of 30 |
| 9th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 30 |
| 17th of 301508 | Elo rating | 15317th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 27–28 | 30–25 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 12–19 | 17–19 |
| Underdog | 15–9 | 13–6 |
| Overs–unders | 21–34 | 22–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 7–8 HOU in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 15.