Tampa Bay Rays at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Josh LoweBatting1-4
- Taj BradleyPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Astros- Jeremy PenaBatting2-3
- Hunter BrownPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 1Walker singled to left, Peña scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 60%
- ML TB +140 / HOU -165
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- HOU: Elo 56.6%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- HOU -149
- TB +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.3 – 4.2 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +11 | TB: Taj Bradley: team allows 0.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.53 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +46 Elo | HOU 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 61.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 60.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.119th of 30 |
| 7th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 3.910th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3012–9 | Road vs home | 21–1211th of 30 |
| 9th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 150210th of 30 |
| 11th of 301515 | Elo rating | 152310th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 30–28 | 30–28 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 12–19 | 17–22 |
| Underdog | 18–9 | 13–6 |
| Overs–unders | 23–35 | 24–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 9–9 HOU in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 18.