Tampa Bay Rays at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Junior CamineroBatting4-5, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Zack LittellPitching9.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Astros- Jeremy PenaBatting2-3, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Colton GordonPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Díaz doubled to left, Caballero scored.16–3
- 9Caballero singled to left, J. Lowe scored.15–3
- 8Caminero homered to right (351 feet), Caballero scored and Díaz scored.14–3
- 7J. Lowe homered to right (350 feet), Mead scored.11–3
- 7Mangum homered to right center (392 feet), Caminero scored.9–3
- 7Caminero doubled to center, B. Lowe scored.7–3
- 7B. Lowe doubled to right, Caballero scored.6–3
- 6Mangum singled to center, Caminero scored.5–3
- 4Caminero homered to left (355 feet).4–3
- 3Peña homered to left (378 feet), Dezenzo scored.3–3
- 3Díaz homered to right center (368 feet), Morel scored.3–1
- 3Caballero grounded out to second, J. Lowe scored, Morel to third.1–1
- 1Peña homered to center (415 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 55%
- ML TB +115 / HOU -135
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.1 pts
- HOU: Elo 54.2%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- HOU -124
- TB +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.0 – 4.5 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +2 | TB: Zack Littell: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Colton Gordon: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +29 Elo | HOU 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.120th of 30 |
| 9th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 3.68th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.511th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 6th of 3011–9 | Road vs home | 21–119th of 30 |
| 8th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 150111th of 30 |
| 16th of 301511 | Elo rating | 15278th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 29–28 | 30–27 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 12–19 | 17–21 |
| Underdog | 17–9 | 13–6 |
| Overs–unders | 22–35 | 23–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 8–9 HOU in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 17.