Houston Astros at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Isaac ParedesBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 11 K
Pirates- Oneil CruzBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching6.1 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Paredes homered to left (383 feet), Peña scored.8–2
- 7Altuve hit sacrifice fly to right, Peña scored.6–2
- 7Peña doubled to center, Melton scored.5–2
- 5Cruz singled to right, Triolo scored, Kiner-Falefa to third.4–2
- 4Melton singled to left, Meyers scored and Smith scored.4–1
- 4Smith singled to center, Walker scored, Meyers to third.2–1
- 4Paredes homered to left (407 feet).1–1
- 3Cruz grounded out to second, Triolo scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 57%
- ML HOU -145 / PIT +120
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.0 pts
- HOU: Elo 59.6%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- HOU -130
- PIT +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.0 – 3.5 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1462 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +18 | −6 | HOU: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.89 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +68 Elo | HOU 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 58.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 58.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 3.229th of 30 |
| 8th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.114th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.926th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3011–16 | Road vs home | 14–1724th of 30 |
| 12th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15133rd of 30 |
| 9th of 301524 | Elo rating | 146225th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–30 | 27–35 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 17–24 | 3–15 |
| Underdog | 14–6 | 24–20 |
| Overs–unders | 24–37 | 24–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 4–4 PIT in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.