Houston Astros at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Jeremy PenaBatting2-4
- Ryan GustoPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Pirates- Oneil CruzBatting2-4
- Mike BurrowsPitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 3Frazier grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Horwitz scored, Hayes out at second.0–3
- 2McCutchen hit sacrifice fly to left, Rodríguez scored.0–2
- 2Kiner-Falefa grounded out to shortstop, Pham scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 53%
- ML HOU -125 / PIT +105
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.6 pts
- HOU: Elo 55.9%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- HOU -114
- PIT +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.9 – 4.6 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1460 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −22 | −15 | HOU: Ryan Gusto: team allows 1.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · PIT: Mike Burrows: team allows 0.73 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +41 Elo | HOU 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 54.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.0 | Runs scored | 3.229th of 30 |
| 8th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.215th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −1.026th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 21st of 3011–15 | Road vs home | 13–1725th of 30 |
| 11th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15133rd of 30 |
| 9th of 301526 | Elo rating | 146025th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–29 | 26–35 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 17–23 | 3–15 |
| Underdog | 14–6 | 23–20 |
| Overs–unders | 24–36 | 24–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 4–3 PIT in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.