Cleveland Guardians at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting2-4
- Slade CecconiPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Yankees- Cody BellingerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Max FriedPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Chisholm Jr. singled to center, Judge scored, Bellinger to second.0–4
- 7Bellinger singled to right, Grisham scored, Judge to third.0–3
- 4Bellinger homered to right center (398 feet), Judge scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 71%
- ML CLE +230 / NYY -285
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.1 pts
- NYY: Elo 59.9%, market 71.0%
- Fair odds
- NYY -244
- CLE +244 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.3 – 5.2 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1555 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +4 | CLE: Slade Cecconi: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · NYY: Max Fried: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +70 Elo | NYY 59.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 69.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 67.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 71.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.0 | Runs scored | 5.43rd of 30 |
| 17th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.89th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.2 | Margin | +1.62nd of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 8th of 3016–16 | Road vs home | 19–108th of 30 |
| 11th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150013th of 30 |
| 15th of 301511 | Elo rating | 15552nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 29–31 | 29–31 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 9–15 | 24–28 |
| Underdog | 20–16 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 28–32 | 26–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 8–14 NYY in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 22.
- Jun 4CLE 4 @ NYY 0Picked NYY 64%Miss
- Jun 3CLE 2 @ NYY 3Picked NYY 65%Hit
- Apr 23NYY 5 @ CLE 1Picked NYY 60%Hit
- Apr 22NYY 2 @ CLE 3Picked CLE 51%Hit
- Apr 21NYY 4 @ CLE 6Picked NYY 52%Miss
- Oct 19NYY 5 @ CLE 2PlayoffsPicked NYY 55%Hit
- Oct 18NYY 8 @ CLE 6PlayoffsPicked NYY 52%Hit
- Oct 17NYY 5 @ CLE 7PlayoffsPicked CLE 50%Hit