Cleveland Guardians at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Angel MartinezBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis OrtizPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Yankees- Ben RiceBatting2-4
- Clarke SchmidtPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Manzardo homered to right center (405 feet).4–0
- 1Schneemann doubled to right, Ramírez scored.3–0
- 1Martínez homered to right center (394 feet), Kwan scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 64%
- ML CLE +165 / NYY -200
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.6 pts
- NYY: Elo 60.3%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- NYY -177
- CLE +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.6 – 4.9 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1558 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +5 | CLE: Luis Ortiz: team allows 0.00 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Clarke Schmidt: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +73 Elo | NYY 60.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 63.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 63.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.0 | Runs scored | 5.53rd of 30 |
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.89th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.3 | Margin | +1.71st of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 11th of 3015–16 | Road vs home | 19–96th of 30 |
| 11th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150013th of 30 |
| 17th of 301508 | Elo rating | 15582nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 28–31 | 29–30 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 9–15 | 24–27 |
| Underdog | 19–16 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 28–31 | 26–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 7–14 NYY in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 21.
- Jun 3CLE 2 @ NYY 3Picked NYY 65%Hit
- Apr 23NYY 5 @ CLE 1Picked NYY 60%Hit
- Apr 22NYY 2 @ CLE 3Picked CLE 51%Hit
- Apr 21NYY 4 @ CLE 6Picked NYY 52%Miss
- Oct 19NYY 5 @ CLE 2PlayoffsPicked NYY 55%Hit
- Oct 18NYY 8 @ CLE 6PlayoffsPicked NYY 52%Hit
- Oct 17NYY 5 @ CLE 7PlayoffsPicked CLE 50%Hit
- Oct 15CLE 3 @ NYY 6PlayoffsPicked NYY 61%Hit