Houston Astros at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Yainer DiazBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Hunter BrownPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Gavin WilliamsPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Paredes singled to right, Melton scored.5–3
- 10Meyers scored, Melton to third on wild pitch by Gaddis.4–3
- 10Meyers scored on Gaddis wild pitch, Melton to third on wild pitch by Gaddis.4–3
- 7Ramírez homered to right (342 feet), Kwan scored.3–3
- 6Arias singled to left, Ramírez scored, Schneemann to second.3–1
- 6Diaz homered to left (370 feet), Caratini scored.3–0
- 5Peña reached on infield single to first, Diaz scored, Meyers to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 51%
- ML HOU -115 / CLE -105
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- HOU: Elo 52.8%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- HOU -104
- CLE +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 3.3 – 3.2 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | 0 | HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.86 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Gavin Williams: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +19 Elo | HOU 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 55.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.0 | Runs scored | 3.924th of 30 |
| 7th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.217th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.322nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 16th of 3013–16 | Road vs home | 17–1216th of 30 |
| 13th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15038th of 30 |
| 8th of 301528 | Elo rating | 150817th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–30 | 29–33 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 19–24 | 9–15 |
| Underdog | 14–6 | 20–18 |
| Overs–unders | 25–38 | 28–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 9–3 CLE in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 12.