Cincinnati Reds at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Jake FraleyBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Wade MileyPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Guardians- Bo NaylorBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luis OrtizPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Joe doubled to right, Stephenson scored, Steer to third.7–4
- 7Naylor homered to right center (388 feet).6–4
- 7Benson singled to center, Encarnacion-Strand scored, Stephenson to second.6–3
- 6Lux singled to right, Fraley scored, Friedl to second.5–3
- 5Encarnacion-Strand hit sacrifice fly to left, Friedl scored.4–3
- 4Fraley homered to right center (382 feet).3–3
- 3Santana singled to center, Ramírez scored, Fry to third.2–3
- 3Ramírez singled to right, Martínez scored, Ramírez to second, Thomas thrown out at third.2–2
- 3Martínez singled to left, Naylor scored.2–1
- 3Friedl homered to right center (380 feet).2–0
- 2Fraley singled to center, Benson scored, Espinal to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 59%
- ML CIN +135 / CLE -160
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.0 pts
- CLE: Elo 52.1%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- CLE -145
- CIN +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.8 – 4.7 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | +6 | CIN: Wade Miley: team allows 0.79 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CLE: Luis Ortiz: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +14 Elo | CLE 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 3.924th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.217th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −0.322nd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 13th of 3015–17 | Road vs home | 18–1316th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15046th of 30 |
| 18th of 301501 | Elo rating | 150817th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 36–30 | 30–34 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 14–20 | 10–16 |
| Underdog | 22–10 | 20–18 |
| Overs–unders | 26–40 | 29–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 6–5 CLE in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.