Cincinnati Reds at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Tyler StephensonBatting2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Tigers- Colt KeithBatting2-3
- Jack FlahertyPitching4.2 IP, 7 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Trevino hit sacrifice fly to left, Stephenson scored.11–1
- 8McLain homered to left center (376 feet), Trevino scored and Fraley scored.10–1
- 5Steer homered to left center (371 feet).7–1
- 5Stephenson homered to left (388 feet), Friedl scored, Lux scored and De La Cruz scored.6–1
- 5Lux singled to right, Fraley scored, Friedl to third.2–1
- 4Pérez singled to right, Greene scored, Keith to third.1–1
- 4De La Cruz homered to right (402 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- DET 62%
- ML CIN +150 / DET -180
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.6 pts
- DET: Elo 58.0%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- DET -161
- CIN +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.2 – 4.3 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −8 | CIN: Brady Singer: team allows 0.34 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.42 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +56 Elo | DET 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 57.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 3.54th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +1.34th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 13th of 3017–19 | Road vs home | 24–92nd of 30 |
| 20th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149426th of 30 |
| 21st of 301499 | Elo rating | 15395th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–32 | 39–32 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 14–21 | 25–21 |
| Underdog | 24–11 | 14–11 |
| Overs–unders | 29–41 | 35–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 2–5 DET in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.