Cincinnati Reds at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Elly De La CruzBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Nick MartinezPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Tigers- Gleyber TorresBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Keider MonteroPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Stephenson doubled to left, De La Cruz scored and Encarnacion-Strand scored.5–11
- 9De La Cruz doubled to right, Espinal scored.3–11
- 8Rogers singled to left, Keith scored and Báez scored, Rogers thrown out at second.2–11
- 8Báez doubled to center, Torkelson scored, Keith to third.2–9
- 7Torres homered to right center (376 feet).2–8
- 6Greene doubled to left, Jones scored, McKinstry scored and Rogers scored.2–7
- 6Torres hit sacrifice fly to left, Báez scored.2–4
- 5De La Cruz homered to right (374 feet).2–3
- 4Báez homered to left center (392 feet).1–3
- 3Greene homered to center (426 feet).1–2
- 3Friedl homered to right center (393 feet).1–1
- 1Torres homered to left (412 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- DET 55%
- ML CIN +115 / DET -135
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.0 pts
- DET: Elo 57.3%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -124
- CIN +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.5 – 4.0 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +5 | CIN: Nick Martinez: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Brant Hurter: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +51 Elo | DET 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.86th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.53rd of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +1.34th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 11th of 3017–18 | Road vs home | 23–92nd of 30 |
| 21st of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149425th of 30 |
| 18th of 301501 | Elo rating | 15375th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–31 | 38–32 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 14–21 | 24–21 |
| Underdog | 24–10 | 14–11 |
| Overs–unders | 28–41 | 34–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 2–4 DET in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.