St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Willson ContrerasBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Erick FeddePitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
White Sox- Michael A. TaylorBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Sean BurkePitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Pozo singled to left, Gorman scored, Nootbaar to second.5–4
- 8Contreras homered to left center (404 feet), Burleson scored.4–4
- 6M. Taylor homered to left (373 feet), Sosa scored.2–4
- 6Nootbaar walked, Herrera scored, Arenado to second, Burleson to third.2–2
- 5Vargas singled to center, Benintendi scored.1–2
- 4Vargas scored on error, Rojas safe at first on throwing error by shortstop Winn, Teel safe at third on error.1–1
- 1Contreras hit sacrifice fly to left, Winn scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- STL 55%
- ML STL -135 / CHW +115
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.7 pts
- STL: Elo 61.0%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- STL -124
- CHW +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 5.0 – 4.5 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1411 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +2 | STL: Erick Fedde: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Sean Burke: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +78 Elo | STL 61.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 58.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 59.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 3.428th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.421st of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −1.026th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 21st of 3016–21 | Road vs home | 16–1925th of 30 |
| 4th of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 150111th of 30 |
| 15th of 301506 | Elo rating | 141129th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 40–33 | 43–30 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 14–20 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 26–13 | 43–29 |
| Overs–unders | 40–33 | 36–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 4–3 CHW in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.