Chicago White Sox at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Mike TauchmanBatting1-5, 1 RBI
- Mike VasilPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Rangers- Adolis GarciaBatting3-6, 1 RBI
- Jacob deGromPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 11A. García singled to center, Carter scored, Burger to third.4–5
- 9M. Taylor doubled to center, Teel scored.4–4
- 8Smith scored on error, Langford safe at first on throwing error by shortstop Meidroth.3–4
- 8Tauchman singled to right, Baldwin scored.3–3
- 7Seager scored on G. Taylor wild pitch, Semien to third on wild pitch by G. Taylor.2–3
- 7Seager scored on G. Taylor wild pitch, Semien to third on wild pitch by G. Taylor.2–3
- 7Semien doubled to center, Langford scored, Seager to third.2–2
- 5Seager doubled to right, Smith scored.2–1
- 4Robert Jr. singled to center, Vargas scored, Robert Jr. to second.2–0
- 4Teel hit sacrifice fly to left, Meidroth scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 71%
- ML CHW +235 / TEX -290
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.6 pts
- TEX: Elo 67.8%, market 71.4%
- Fair odds
- TEX -249
- CHW +249 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 2.7 – 4.8 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1415 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +19 | CHW: Mike Vasil: team allows 0.41 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · TEX: Jacob deGrom: team allows 0.95 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +129 Elo | TEX 67.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 70.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 70.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 71.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 3.726th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.32nd of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +0.411th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 29th of 307–29 | Road vs home | 21–1312th of 30 |
| 11th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149327th of 30 |
| 29th of 301415 | Elo rating | 150021st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 41–29 | 35–35 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 17–20 |
| Underdog | 41–28 | 18–15 |
| Overs–unders | 34–36 | 22–48 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 3–14 TEX in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 17.