Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Jake BurgerBatting3-6, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Patrick CorbinPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Twins- Willi CastroBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Bailey OberPitching4.2 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Haggerty homered to right center (396 feet), Langford scored and Duran scored.16–3
- 6Lee grounded out to shortstop, Lewis scored, Castro to third.13–3
- 6Castro doubled to left, France scored, Lewis to third.13–2
- 6A. García homered to left center (409 feet), Burger scored and Jung scored.13–1
- 6Burger singled to center, Semien scored and Carter scored.10–1
- 6Carter singled to center, Smith scored, Semien to third.8–1
- 5Carter homered to right (403 feet).7–1
- 2Langford homered to left (371 feet), Higashioka scored and Smith scored.6–1
- 2Higashioka singled to left, A. García scored.3–1
- 2Burger homered to left (356 feet).2–1
- 1Correa singled to left, Buxton scored, Jeffers to second.1–1
- 1Smith homered to right center (393 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 58%
- ML TEX +130 / MIN -155
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- MIN: Elo 55.3%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- MIN -140
- TEX +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.4 – 4.1 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +4 | TEX: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +37 Elo | MIN 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 60.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 59.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 3.89th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.410th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 26th of 3012–23 | Road vs home | 20–116th of 30 |
| 26th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 149427th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301494 | Elo rating | 151014th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–35 | 39–28 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 16–20 | 23–17 |
| Underdog | 17–15 | 16–11 |
| Overs–unders | 21–47 | 29–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 5–11 MIN in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 16.