Toronto Blue Jays at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Alejandro KirkBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Bowden FrancisPitching3.1 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Twins- Brooks LeeBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Joe RyanPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 5Buxton walked, Castro scored, Lee to second, France to third.3–6
- 5France doubled to right, Lewis scored, Castro to third.3–5
- 4Vázquez homered to left (395 feet).3–4
- 4Lee homered to right (348 feet).3–3
- 3Springer doubled to left, Guerrero Jr. scored, Kirk to third.3–2
- 3Kirk singled to left, Bichette scored, Guerrero Jr. to third.2–2
- 2Larnach hit sacrifice fly to center, France scored.1–2
- 2Vázquez grounded out to second, Castro scored, Lee to second, France to third.1–1
- 2Roden doubled to center, Clement scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 61%
- ML TOR +145 / MIN -175
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.6 pts
- MIN: Elo 55.3%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- MIN -156
- TOR +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.8 – 4.7 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +8 | TOR: Bowden Francis: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +37 Elo | MIN 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 57.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 57.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.218th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.78th of 30 |
| 17th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.59th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 17th of 3013–16 | Road vs home | 18–1010th of 30 |
| 5th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 149525th of 30 |
| 18th of 301502 | Elo rating | 151015th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–26 | 37–27 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 17–13 | 21–16 |
| Underdog | 21–13 | 16–11 |
| Overs–unders | 34–30 | 27–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 7–9 MIN in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 16.