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Toronto Blue Jays at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast

FinalSportsnet One, Sportsnet, MLB.TV, Twins.TV

Away

Blue Jays

34-29

6–4

at

Home

Twins

34-29

TOR 47%MIN 53%

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Target Field · Sportsnet One, Sportsnet, MLB.TV, Twins.TV

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.

MIN75%50%75%TORStart12345678Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Blue Jays
  • Addison BargerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
  • Eric LauerPitching2.1 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Twins
  • Trevor LarnachBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
  • Bailey OberPitching7.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K

Scoring summary

  • 8Lewis singled to center, Larnach scored, France to third.6–4
  • 8Kirk singled to center, Guerrero Jr. scored.6–3
  • 6Springer homered to center (435 feet).5–3
  • 5Bichette singled to center, Clement scored and Giménez scored.4–3
  • 4Barger homered to right (385 feet), Guerrero Jr. scored.2–3
  • 2Vázquez doubled to center, Lewis scored.0–3
  • 2Clemens grounded out to second, Lee scored, Lewis to third.0–2
  • 1Larnach homered to right center (421 feet).0–1

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Twins 53%

Toss-upMiss
TOR 47%MIN 53%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.

Market
MIN 53%
ML TOR +105 / MIN -125
Pre-line forecast
MIN 57%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
MIN 54%
Ratings vs. market
+0.5 pts
MIN: Elo 53.7%, market 53.2%
Fair odds
MIN -114
TOR +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
TOR 4.1 – 4.4 MIN
Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorTORMINWhy
Team rating14991513Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers+13+7TOR: Paxton Schultz: team allows 0.63 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsMIN +26 EloMIN 53.7%
Market-implied ratingsMIN 57.2%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastMIN 56.7%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastMIN 53.2%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.

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Toronto Blue Jays and Minnesota Twins compared, with each team's league rank
TORStatMIN
16th of 304.2Runs scored4.216th of 30
17th of 304.2Runs allowed3.67th of 30
18th of 300.0Margin+0.68th of 30
2nd of 308–2Last 105–513th of 30
22nd of 3011–16Road vs home18–83rd of 30
6th of 301504Opponent Elo149426th of 30
19th of 301499Elo rating151314th of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

Blue JaysTwins
14001450150015501600league averageAprJulOctJanAprJul

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonTORMIN
Run line36–2637–25
Last 106–47–3
Favorite17–1321–14
Underdog19–1316–11
Overs–unders32–3025–37
Overs–unders, last 106–46–4

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

TOR 5–9 MIN in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 14.