Philadelphia Phillies at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Trea TurnerBatting3-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Blue Jays- Addison BargerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Eric LauerPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Barger homered to right (373 feet), Kirk scored.8–3
- 8Turner homered to left (373 feet).8–1
- 5Schneider homered to right center (372 feet).7–1
- 2Castellanos flied out to right, Harper scored on throwing error by right fielder Barger, Bohm safe at second on error.7–0
- 1Stott singled to center, Castellanos scored and Kepler scored, Realmuto to third.6–0
- 1Kepler singled to center, Bohm scored, Castellanos to second.4–0
- 1Harper homered to right center (394 feet).3–0
- 1Turner homered to right center (377 feet), Stott scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 55%
- ML PHI -135 / TOR +115
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- PHI: Elo 53.0%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -124
- TOR +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.5 – 4.0 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +4 | PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Bowden Francis: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +21 Elo | PHI 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 55.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.216th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.317th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.119th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3017–11 | Road vs home | 20–1212th of 30 |
| 29th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 15037th of 30 |
| 6th of 301531 | Elo rating | 149719th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 28–31 | 35–24 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 22–26 | 16–12 |
| Underdog | 6–5 | 19–12 |
| Overs–unders | 26–33 | 30–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 6–2 TOR in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.