Philadelphia Phillies at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Nick CastellanosBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Mick AbelPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Blue Jays- Bo BichetteBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Jose BerriosPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Kirk doubled to center, Guerrero Jr. scored.1–2
- 6Bichette tripled to center, Giménez scored.1–1
- 2Castellanos homered to right center (391 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 50%
- ML PHI -110 / TOR -110
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- TOR: Elo 45.7%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- TOR -100
- PHI -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.8 – 4.8 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | 0 | PHI: Mick Abel: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · TOR: Jose Berrios: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +30 Elo | PHI 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.217th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.318th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.221st of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 1st of 3018–11 | Road vs home | 20–1314th of 30 |
| 29th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 15037th of 30 |
| 6th of 301534 | Elo rating | 149521st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 29–31 | 35–25 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 23–26 | 16–12 |
| Underdog | 6–5 | 19–13 |
| Overs–unders | 27–33 | 31–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 7–2 TOR in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.