Toronto Blue Jays at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Tyler HeinemanBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Twins- Matt WallnerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chris PaddackPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Clemens homered to right center (408 feet).5–4
- 9Guerrero Jr. singled to left, Heineman scored, Guerrero Jr. to second.5–3
- 8Springer homered to left (376 feet), Barger scored.4–3
- 6Wallner homered to right (365 feet).2–3
- 4Lewis walked, Correa scored, France to second, Wallner to third.2–2
- 4France hit by pitch, Jeffers scored, Wallner to second, Correa to third.2–1
- 2Heineman homered to right (403 feet).2–0
- 1Lukes singled to left, Guerrero Jr. scored, Springer to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 51%
- ML TOR -105 / MIN -115
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.0 pts
- MIN: Elo 53.0%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- MIN -104
- TOR +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.7 – 3.8 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | 0 | TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Chris Paddack: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +21 Elo | MIN 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.217th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.77th of 30 |
| 18th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.68th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3012–16 | Road vs home | 18–97th of 30 |
| 6th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 149427th of 30 |
| 18th of 301501 | Elo rating | 151115th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–26 | 37–26 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 17–13 | 21–15 |
| Underdog | 20–13 | 16–11 |
| Overs–unders | 33–30 | 26–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 6–9 MIN in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 15.