Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Evan CarterBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Tyler MahlePitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Twins- Matt WallnerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Simeon Woods RichardsonPitching4.2 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Higashioka grounded out to third, Jung scored.16–4
- 8A. García hit sacrifice fly to right, Carter scored on error, Jung safe at third on throwing error by right fielder Wallner.15–4
- 8Jung doubled to center, Semien scored and Burger scored, Carter to third.14–4
- 8Carter singled to right, Seager scored, Burger to second, Semien to third.12–4
- 8Langford homered to left (395 feet).11–4
- 6Wallner homered to right (404 feet).10–4
- 6Carter homered to right (394 feet), Semien scored.10–3
- 5Jeffers singled to right, Larnach scored.8–3
- 5Smith singled to center, Higashioka scored, Smith to second.8–2
- 5Higashioka doubled to right, A. García scored and Jung scored.7–2
- 5Jung singled to left, Seager scored and Carter scored.5–2
- 4Lewis singled to center, Correa scored.3–2
- 4France singled to right, Jeffers scored, France out stretching at second, Correa to third.3–1
- 4Higashioka singled to left, Carter scored and A. García scored.3–0
- 4A. García doubled to right, Burger scored, Carter to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 53%
- ML TEX +105 / MIN -125
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- MIN: Elo 54.2%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- MIN -114
- TEX +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.1 – 4.4 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +2 | TEX: Tyler Mahle: team allows 0.55 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIN: Simeon Woods Richardson: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +29 Elo | MIN 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 55.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.3 | Runs scored | 4.217th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.3 | Runs allowed | 3.77th of 30 |
| 17th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.69th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 26th of 3011–22 | Road vs home | 19–106th of 30 |
| 26th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 149427th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301492 | Elo rating | 151214th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 32–34 | 38–27 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 16–20 | 22–16 |
| Underdog | 16–14 | 16–11 |
| Overs–unders | 20–46 | 28–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 4–10 MIN in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 14.