Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Marcus SemienBatting3-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Jack LeiterPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Rays- Junior CamineroBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryan PepiotPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Walls reached on infield single to second, Aranda scored and Caminero scored, Morel to second.3–4
- 9Caminero singled to center, Caballero scored, Aranda to second.3–2
- 7Semien homered to left (366 feet).3–1
- 5Semien homered to left (369 feet).2–1
- 3Burger homered to center (442 feet).1–1
- 2Caminero homered to center (417 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 54%
- ML TEX +110 / TB -130
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.2 pts
- TB: Elo 59.5%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- TB -119
- TEX +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.1 – 4.4 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | +8 | TEX: Jack Leiter: team allows 0.67 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · TB: Ryan Pepiot: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +67 Elo | TB 59.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 55.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.4 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 3.66th of 30 |
| 19th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.86th of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 27th of 309–20 | Road vs home | 20–1919th of 30 |
| 25th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 15039th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301490 | Elo rating | 151712th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 29–33 | 32–29 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 14–20 | 13–20 |
| Underdog | 15–13 | 19–9 |
| Overs–unders | 20–42 | 24–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 14–5 TB in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 19.