St. Louis Cardinals at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Masyn WinnBatting2-4
- Sonny GrayPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting1-4
- Patrick CorbinPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 4Contreras hit a ground rule double, Winn scored.2–0
- 2Arenado hit sacrifice fly to center, Contreras scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- STL 58%
- ML STL -155 / TEX +130
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.2 pts
- STL: Elo 51.1%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- STL -140
- TEX +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.6 – 3.9 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −6 | STL: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +8 Elo | STL 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 60.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 59.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 3.427th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 3.42nd of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.6 | Margin | 0.018th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 17th of 3013–17 | Road vs home | 19–1214th of 30 |
| 5th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 149426th of 30 |
| 14th of 301513 | Elo rating | 149222nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–24 | 27–31 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 11–13 | 13–20 |
| Underdog | 22–11 | 14–11 |
| Overs–unders | 31–26 | 18–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 3–4 TEX in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.