St. Louis Cardinals at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Lars NootbaarBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Matthew LiberatorePitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Rangers- Marcus SemienBatting4-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jack LeiterPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Nootbaar doubled to center, Scott II scored.1–11
- 7Semien homered to left center (382 feet), Higashioka scored.0–11
- 6Jung singled to left, Haggerty scored and Semien scored, Langford to second.0–9
- 6Haggerty singled to right, Higashioka scored, Semien to third.0–7
- 6Semien singled to left, Burger scored, Higashioka to second.0–6
- 2Langford homered to left center (390 feet), Haggerty scored.0–5
- 2Haggerty tripled to right, Higashioka scored and Semien scored.0–3
- 1Jung singled to left, Haggerty scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 54%
- ML STL -130 / TEX +110
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.3 pts
- STL: Elo 54.5%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- STL -119
- TEX +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.4 – 4.1 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −22 | STL: Matthew Liberatore: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TEX: Jack Leiter: team allows 1.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +32 Elo | STL 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 3.228th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.54th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.221st of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 16th of 3013–16 | Road vs home | 18–1215th of 30 |
| 5th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 149426th of 30 |
| 12th of 301517 | Elo rating | 148822nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–23 | 26–31 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 11–12 | 13–20 |
| Underdog | 22–11 | 13–11 |
| Overs–unders | 30–26 | 17–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 3–3 TEX in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.