Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Jake BurgerBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Tyler MahlePitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Rays- Junior CamineroBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Drew RasmussenPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Caminero homered to left center (398 feet).1–5
- 7Burger singled to left, A. García scored, Semien to third.1–4
- 6Misner struck out looking, Caminero stole home, Mangum stole second, Mangum safe at third on throwing error by catcher Higashioka.0–4
- 6Mangum reached on infield single to first, Aranda scored, Caminero to third.0–3
- 6Díaz scored, Caminero to second, Aranda to third on wild pitch by Latz.0–2
- 6Díaz scored on Latz wild pitch, Caminero to second on wild pitch by Latz, Aranda to third on wild pitch by Latz.0–2
- 2Misner homered to left (328 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TB 57%
- ML TEX +125 / TB -150
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- TB: Elo 55.2%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- TB -135
- TEX +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.4 – 4.1 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | +10 | TEX: Tyler Mahle: team allows 0.64 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TB: Drew Rasmussen: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +36 Elo | TB 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.4 | Runs scored | 4.314th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 3.67th of 30 |
| 18th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.76th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 26th of 309–18 | Road vs home | 18–1921st of 30 |
| 26th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 15038th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301493 | Elo rating | 151413th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 28–32 | 31–28 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 14–20 | 12–19 |
| Underdog | 14–12 | 19–9 |
| Overs–unders | 19–41 | 23–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 14–3 TB in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 17.