St. Louis Cardinals at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Willson ContrerasBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Erick FeddePitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Rangers- Josh SmithBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Jacob deGromPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Smith homered to right (391 feet), Semien scored.1–8
- 8Haggerty hit sacrifice bunt to pitcher, Burger scored, Semien to second.1–6
- 8Heim hit sacrifice fly to center, Osuna scored.1–5
- 8Burger doubled to left, Jung scored, Osuna to third.1–4
- 7Langford hit sacrifice fly to center, Semien scored, Smith to second, Haggerty to third.1–3
- 2Smith doubled to left, Haggerty scored and Semien scored.1–2
- 1Contreras singled to right, Nootbaar scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 59%
- ML STL +135 / TEX -160
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.2 pts
- TEX: Elo 50.9%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- TEX -145
- STL +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.3 – 4.2 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +13 | STL: Erick Fedde: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Jacob deGrom: team allows 0.63 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +6 Elo | TEX 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 58.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 57.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 3.327th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 3.42nd of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −0.118th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 16th of 3014–17 | Road vs home | 19–1316th of 30 |
| 5th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 149426th of 30 |
| 12th of 301515 | Elo rating | 149022nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 34–24 | 27–32 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 12–13 | 13–20 |
| Underdog | 22–11 | 14–12 |
| Overs–unders | 31–27 | 18–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 4–4 TEX in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.