Texas Rangers at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Evan CarterBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jacob LatzPitching3.1 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Nationals- Alex CallBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Trevor WilliamsPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Burger homered to left center (394 feet).4–2
- 5Semien grounded out to shortstop, Smith scored, Seager to second, Haggerty to third.3–2
- 4Bell grounded into fielder's choice to second, Rosario scored, Lowe out at second.2–2
- 4Call homered to left (382 feet).2–1
- 2Carter homered to right center (382 feet), Semien scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 53%
- ML TEX -125 / WSH +105
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.2 pts
- TEX: Elo 49.0%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- TEX -114
- WSH +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.4 – 4.1 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +1 | TEX: Jacob Latz (no track record yet) · WSH: Trevor Williams: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +7 Elo | WSH 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.3 | Runs scored | 4.315th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.3 | Runs allowed | 5.024th of 30 |
| 18th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.824th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 26th of 3010–22 | Road vs home | 15–1724th of 30 |
| 24th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 15046th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301490 | Elo rating | 147024th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–34 | 35–29 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 15–20 | 1–9 |
| Underdog | 16–14 | 34–20 |
| Overs–unders | 20–45 | 30–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 4–4 WSH in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.