Texas Rangers at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Marcus SemienBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Jacob deGromPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Nationals- Luis Garcia Jr.Batting1-4
- Mitchell ParkerPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8A. García singled to center, Semien scored.5–0
- 8Semien doubled to left, Langford scored and Haggerty scored.4–0
- 1Semien singled to center, Haggerty scored on fielding error by center fielder Hassell III and Jung scored on error, Semien to third.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 59%
- ML TEX -160 / WSH +135
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.1 pts
- TEX: Elo 52.0%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- TEX -145
- WSH +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.7 – 3.8 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | −1 | TEX: Jacob deGrom: team allows 0.81 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · WSH: Mitchell Parker: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +14 Elo | TEX 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 61.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 59.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.3 | Runs scored | 4.314th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 5.024th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.723rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 27th of 309–22 | Road vs home | 15–1622nd of 30 |
| 24th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 15045th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301488 | Elo rating | 147324th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 30–34 | 35–28 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 14–20 | 1–9 |
| Underdog | 16–14 | 34–19 |
| Overs–unders | 20–44 | 30–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 3–4 WSH in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.