Texas Rangers at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Josh SmithBatting1-3
- Patrick CorbinPitching8.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Nationals- Alex CallBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Michael SorokaPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Call homered to left center (407 feet).0–2
- 2Hassell III grounded out to second, Lowe scored, Call to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 52%
- ML TEX -120 / WSH +100
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.1 pts
- TEX: Elo 51.1%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- TEX -109
- WSH +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.8 – 4.7 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −9 | TEX: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Michael Soroka: team allows 0.43 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +7 Elo | TEX 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.4 | Runs scored | 4.413th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 5.124th of 30 |
| 19th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.723rd of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 27th of 309–21 | Road vs home | 14–1623rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 15045th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301489 | Elo rating | 147124th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 30–33 | 34–28 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 14–20 | 0–9 |
| Underdog | 16–13 | 34–19 |
| Overs–unders | 20–43 | 30–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 3–3 WSH in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.