Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Marcus SemienBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jack LeiterPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Twins- Byron BuxtonBatting3-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- David FestaPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 5Correa hit a ground rule double, Castro scored.2–6
- 5Castro tripled to left, Wallner scored and France scored.2–5
- 3Buxton homered to center (479 feet), Lee scored and Vázquez scored.2–3
- 3Smith doubled to center, Heim scored.2–0
- 2Semien homered to left (424 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 57%
- ML TEX +125 / MIN -150
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- MIN: Elo 53.8%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- MIN -135
- TEX +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.9 – 4.6 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | −16 | TEX: Jack Leiter: team allows 0.64 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · MIN: David Festa: team allows 0.80 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +26 Elo | MIN 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 59.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 58.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 4.217th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.3 | Runs allowed | 3.99th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.49th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 25th of 3012–22 | Road vs home | 19–118th of 30 |
| 27th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 149526th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301496 | Elo rating | 150715th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–34 | 38–28 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 16–20 | 22–17 |
| Underdog | 17–14 | 16–11 |
| Overs–unders | 21–46 | 29–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 5–10 MIN in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 15.