Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Luis Robert Jr.Batting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Shane SmithPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Astros- Jeremy PenaBatting2-4
- Lance McCullers Jr.Pitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Diaz hit sacrifice fly to center, Peña scored, Paredes to third.4–2
- 4Robert Jr. homered to left center (362 feet).4–1
- 3Paredes hit sacrifice fly to center, Smith scored.3–1
- 3Quero singled to left, Meidroth scored and Tauchman scored, Benintendi to second.3–0
- 2Robert Jr. doubled to right, Teel scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 59%
- ML CHW +135 / HOU -160
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.4 pts
- HOU: Elo 67.5%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- HOU -145
- CHW +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.3 – 4.2 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1417 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −1 | CHW: Shane Smith: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · HOU: Lance McCullers Jr.: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +127 Elo | HOU 67.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 57.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 59.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 4.023rd of 30 |
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.76th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.8 | Margin | +0.411th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 29th of 306–26 | Road vs home | 22–126th of 30 |
| 13th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150111th of 30 |
| 29th of 301417 | Elo rating | 15287th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 39–27 | 34–31 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 19–24 |
| Underdog | 39–26 | 15–7 |
| Overs–unders | 33–33 | 26–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 7–9 HOU in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 16.