Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Maikel GarciaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
White Sox- Mike TauchmanBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Davis MartinPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Elko scored on pickoff error by pitcher Clarke, Tauchman picked off third.2–7
- 8Elko scored on pickoff error by pitcher Clarke, Tauchman picked off third.2–7
- 8Rojas scored on error, Tauchman safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Garcia, Elko safe at third on error.2–6
- 8Teel scored on Clarke wild pitch, Elko to second on wild pitch by Clarke, Rojas to third on wild pitch by Clarke.2–5
- 8Teel scored on Clarke wild pitch, Elko to second on wild pitch by Clarke, Rojas to third on wild pitch by Clarke.2–5
- 8Robert Jr. singled to right, Slater scored and Taylor scored, Teel to second.2–4
- 5Tauchman homered to right (372 feet).2–2
- 3Pasquantino homered to right (366 feet).2–1
- 3Garcia homered to center (408 feet).1–1
- 2Robert Jr. singled to center, Palacios scored, Teel to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- KC 55%
- ML KC -135 / CHW +115
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.2 pts
- KC: Elo 61.4%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- KC -124
- CHW +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.5 – 4.0 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1412 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −7 | KC: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Davis Martin: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +81 Elo | KC 61.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 58.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 58.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.4 | Runs scored | 3.426th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 4.319th of 30 |
| 19th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.924th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–721st of 30 |
| 17th of 3014–17 | Road vs home | 14–1725th of 30 |
| 8th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 18th of 301504 | Elo rating | 141229th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–32 | 37–26 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 8–21 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 23–11 | 37–25 |
| Overs–unders | 25–38 | 31–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 23–7 CHW in their last 30 meetings; the forecast called 25 of 30.